Modern tactic of prognostication of unsuccessful attempts of assisted reproductive technologies

Abstract

DOI: 10.52705/2788-6190-2023-03-10
УДК 618.177-07-08:616-432

The objective. Development of algorithm of prognostication of unsuccessful attempts of assisted reproductive technologies is on the basis of mathematical analysis of principal reasons and risk factors.
Materials and methods. 97 matrimonial pair (1 group) which were treated of infertility with application of assisted reproductive technologies. Depending on the result of treatment 2 sub-groups were retrospectively formed. A to 1.1 sub-group entered 50 women from echographic by the confirmed pregnancy, a 1.2 sub-group consisted of 47 women which pregnancy did not come in.
Results. For the set model frequency exactly positive was 82,0% a result (sensitiveness) (in 41 from 50 women pregnancy came, in the last 9 it was got a pseudo-positive result). Consequently, a pseudo-positive result it was got in 18,0% cases. Frequency exactly negative was 89,4% a result (specificity) (in 42 from 47 women pregnancy did not come, in the last 5 it was got a pseudo-negative result). Consequently, a pseudo-negative result it was got in 10,6% cases. In biomedical researches by the possible threshold of pseudo-positive and pseudo-negative results there is a level in 20%.
Conclusion. A sensitiveness of prognostication of pregnancy by the offered model and set regressive function is 82%. Specificity – 89,4%. Value of positive result – 89,1%, that provides for, value of negative result which provides for, – 82,3%, general exactness of prediction – 85,6%.